Gold Journal (22/10/2026): The Morning Sell-Off That Surprised Me
Image made by AI . Reasoning oil up and gold down at the end of this my personal trading journal .
H4: the solid break below the previous low
On H4, I was watching the previous low area around 4107. Gold did not only make a small wick under that level and quickly recover. It broke through with strong bearish candles. To me, this was a solid break below the previous low, which gave a stronger bearish signal.
After that break, price also went through the next marked area around 4084 and continued lower. This made the H4 structure look more bearish because sellers were pushing price through previous support, instead of price only rejecting from the level and bouncing back.
This was important for my lower-timeframe plan. When H4 showed that strong bearish break, I had a reason to look for selling opportunities on M15 and M5. I still need to remember that one H4 break does not mean price can never bounce. The safer idea is to wait and see if the lower timeframes give a clear sell setup.
My entry idea .
From my chart markings, my short idea came after price made a bearish compression on M15 plus the bearsih breakout in H4 . The candles were moving in a tighter area, but the structure was still leaning downward. Then price broke below the compression and made a BOS. That gave me more evidence that sellers were still controlling the move.
After the break, price pulled back toward the area I marked as an OB plus trendline. This area was useful because it was not just a random place to sell: price had already broken lower, and the pullback came back toward a possible resistance area while the descending trendline was also there. That is my first entry for today market (OB + trendline area)
The next entry is m5 engulfing reaction after the OB area which is also giving next M15 engulfing reaction. My chart marks an M5 engulfing market reaction at that area. For my learning, this was the confirmation part: price came back to the OB and trendline area, then M5 showed sellers responding. This gave my short idea more reasoning than simply selling after a large red candle.
My entry logic was:
- H4 gave me a bearish direction after the solid break below the previous low.
- M15 formed bearish compression and then broke structure lower.
- Price pulled back toward my OB and descending trendline area.
- The price showed an engulfing bearish reaction, which I used as a possible confirmation to sell.
I should keep checking where my idea becomes invalid as well. If price had strongly reclaimed the OB and trendline area, then my sell idea would be weaker.
Today abnormal chart reason
Source: https://houseofsaud.com/king-fahd-airport-attack/
Why was gold bearish in the morning?
Today market was very interesting. I was surprise to see gold becoming so bearish in the morning. When market move like this, I start wondering if something unusual is happening in the world. So I check the news and found the headline about the attack at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
Notes : Source information from the net . This reasoning is only for my record and references in future.
The airport attack happened late Wednesday. Saudi civil aviation authority reported one person killed and eight injured, and the airport had some damage. The headline I saw said Houthi attack, but from the report I checked, the attacker for this particular airport incident was not officially confirmed yet. There was also another serious incident at an Aramco-operated oil field, where debris from an intercepted drone killed two workers. This is part of the wider tension and attacks around Saudi infrastructure, which has been happening during the renewed conflict in the region. Source : AP News
Normally, when there is war or geopolitical problem, people can buy gold as a safe-haven asset. So my first thought was, maybe gold should go up. But market does not always react in a simple way. This time oil prices went up because traders were worried that the conflict can affect oil supply from the region. Reuters reported Brent reached its highest level since May, while gold fell to a more than two-month low. Sources : Reuters
The reason gold still went down is the oil price rise also bring another worry: inflation may become higher. If energy cost stay high, traders may think interest rates will need to stay higher for longer. Gold does not pay interest, so higher-rate expectations can make it less attractive. This seem to be the stronger pressure on gold today, even while the geopolitical news could normally give some safe-haven support. Reuters also reported that recent US inflation data was hotter than expected, adding more pressure from the interest-rate side. Sources : Reuters
So today I learned that bad news does not automatically mean gold bullish. I need to watch how oil, inflation expectations, interest rates, the US dollar, and the chart are reacting together. The news can help explain the bigger background, but the price action still need to confirm the direction.
What I learned today
Today’s market surprised me because the news sounded like it should support gold, but gold still sold off hard. After checking more, I understand that the rise in oil also increased inflation and higher-rate worries, and those worries put pressure on gold.
Technically, the H4 solid break below the previous low gave me the bigger bearish direction. The M15 compression and BOS helped me wait for a pullback, and the M5 engulfing reaction at my OB and trendline area gave a more specific reason for my short idea.
This is my personal chart study and data. Next time I want to check the news earlier, then compare it with oil, the dollar, and interest-rate expectations. I also want to keep writing down the exact entry and invalidation level, so later I can review if my reasoning was correct or I was only reacting to the movement.
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